Picture this: It’s the final few weeks of summer, cramming in those late vacations, the waves gently crashing along the shoreline … and you’re on your phone, scrolling through seemingly endless fantasy football hot takes.
It takes courage to blaze your own trail as a fantasy manager and go with your conviction on certain players, even if all the experts are seemingly saying something else. Doesn’t it seem like by Week 3 every season that player you had a hunch on is doing exactly what you thought he would?
If only you followed your gut.
We asked our fantasy analysts to pick one player they are going against the grain on, whether it’s a so-called “bust” candidate they think holds promise or a player others seem to be too optimistic about.
Essentially, our analysts are “alone on an island” with these players — and they know it.
Yes, it’s tough to formulate a case for a wide receiver who plays for the only NFL team that hasn’t had a receiver post a 20% target share in any of the past four seasons … and who finished 89th at the position in scoring in 2025. But following Romeo Doubs’ departure, I still see Golden as the Packers’ most suitable WR1. His speed metrics were comparable to Christian Watson’s, and he’s a better field-stretching target than Jayden Reed. The opportunity is there for Golden to have many more performances like he did in the wild-card round (four catches, 84 yards, one TD). — Tristan H. Cockcroft
Let’s bump up Shough heading into 2026. In his nine starts last season as a rookie on a rebuilding Saints team, Shough scored 17.1 fantasy PPG and finished with 21 or more points in three of his final five games. A timing-and-rhythm passer in Kellen Moore’s offense, Shough also brings a dual-threat element to the field (174 rushing yards, 3 TDs in 2025). Newly signed RB Travis Etienne Jr. is a boost for Shough as an underneath receiving outlet, and the team added wide receivers Jordyn Tyson and Bryce Lance via the draft. You want value and potential QB1 upside? Put Shough on your fantasy radar. — Matt Bowen
Do I believe Burden has a good shot to break out this season? Yes. Is it enough to justify drafting him in Round 4 over proven commodities? Absolutely not. Burden was extremely efficient during his rookie season, but it was over a fairly small sample size (75 targets, including the playoffs) and didn’t translate to much fantasy success (three of his four double-digit outings came when fellow WR Rome Odunze was sidelined). In fact, we’ve yet to see Burden handle a target share over 18% in a game where Odunze was also active. Burden has plenty of upside, but considering his quarterback’s accuracy concerns, he’s simply too expensive on draft day. — Mike Clay
Brooks’ red flags are big and bright. He tore the ACL in his right knee twice over a span of 13 months. However, he’s reportedly on track to participate in offseason workouts and make a healthy 2026 debut. Prior to suffering the initial tear (in November 2023), Brooks flashed as Texas’ primary ball carrier, captivating scouts with his explosive running style and tackle-breaking ability. Carolina was sold on his traits, making Brooks the first running back selected in the 2024 NFL draft.
The Panthers’ intrigue does not appear to have waned, as the team let Rico Dowdle’s contract expire at the close of 2025 and eschewed the position during the NFL draft. With Chuba Hubbard as his main competition, the 23-year-old is staring down a massive opportunity. His injury history is an obvious and legitimate concern, but the risk is baked into his 15th-round ADP. — Liz Loza
OK, so Marvin Harrison Jr. was once a top-five NFL draft pick, and he boasts the Hall of Fame father and thus, he must be the superstar. Well, Wilson, with little prior statistical distinction, emerged with a 1,000-yard season in 2025, much of it with Harrison injured, but hey, we all have different paths, right? What if Harrison isn’t a generational talent, and both he and Wilson are both borderline WR2 options while some combination of Cardinals QBs throw for 4,000 yards? I can see it, and it sure doesn’t match expected ADP value for these receivers, but only one of them is an excellent value pick. — Eric Karabell
After missing the majority of the 2024 season, McCaffrey returned to form in 2025 delivering another season as the top running back, contributing 24.5 fantasy PPG. If you had CMC on your roster, it was glorious, but as Robert Frost once said, “nothing gold can stay.”
McCaffrey touched the ball 450 times last season (including the playoffs), the fifth-most touches for a running back in the last 20 years. Historically, RBs with that heavy of a workload see a major drop-off the following season. We just watched it happen with Saquon Barkley last season, when he followed up his RB1 finish in 2024 (on 482 touches, including playoffs) by falling to RB14 on a points-per-game basis in 2025. I hate to say it, but I think that historical regression will happen to CMC in 2026, given his massive workload last season. He’ll be a high-end RB1 for most, but won’t crack my top seven. — Daniel Dopp
When looking for running backs to promote as late-round value targets in 2026, it’s fair to say most won’t choose a free agent entering his sixth year in the league, coming off an Achilles tear. But I will.
After all, this is the back with four 1,000-yard rushing seasons as a Steeler who also has the ability to catch passes. His last full season (2024) was his best to date for explosive runs (percentage of carries gaining 10 or more yards). Is it the Achilles injury that scares you? Well, it was just two years ago that J.K. Dobbins, also a free agent coming off a torn Achilles, signed with the Chargers and surpassed expectations, posting nine touchdowns and a career high in percentage of yards gained after contact. Harris chose the same surgeon (Neal ElAttrache) and elected to rehab at the same facility (Elite Orthosport) as Dobbins. Perhaps a similar comeback is on the horizon. — Stephania Bell
Barkley is a running back I’m unlikely to roster this season. He’s entering his age-29 campaign with an second-round ADP after his production dropped from 2,283 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2024 to 1,413 yards and nine TDs in 2025, while his fantasy points per game fell from 22.5 to 14.5. Since 2010, only six RBs have averaged at least 17.0 fantasy PPG at age 29 or older. I’d rather target fellow Eagles RB Tank Bigsby later in drafts. The 24-year-old flashed elite tackle-breaking ability in averaging 5.9 yards per carry in 2025, and he offers league-winning upside if called upon to get heavy volume. — Eric Moody
