Historically, the Edmonton Oilers get out of the gate slowly, like the sleepy Chihuahua in the famous GIF. The most famous recent example cost coach Jay Woodcroft his job. In 2023-24, the year Edmonton made the Stanley Cup Final for the first time in 18 years, Woodcroft's crew began the year 3-9-1, leading then-general manager Ken Holland to fire him. Kris Knoblauch replaced Woodcroft, and the team romped to Game 7 of the final against the Florida Panthers.
Will this season see a slow start? There are reasons to be concerned, and the solutions could rock the team in the short term.
The Connor McDavid-Leon Draisaitl deployment
At his introductory media availability, Babcock was frank about what will happen on the ice in Edmonton. He talked about his conversation with the team's leadership group (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman) and told the media, “I was very clear to them: unless you're 100 percent all in on Mike Babcock, I have no interest in being the coach.†There's not much room for misunderstanding with that starting point.
Babcock also said, “I went through in detail the changes that would have to be made for us to have success when it mattered,†and that will mean some adjustment for the players.
The biggest adjustment this fall? Some fans will say McDavid. He is an exceptional outscorer, with a massive goal percentage edge at five-on-five. Those who criticize the captain for not backchecking or missing assignments overlook the enormous advantage he represents every shift.
McDavid exceeded a 60 percent goal share in 2016-17 and 2023-24, an outstanding total. In addition, his line scored 4.38 goals per 60 in 2023-24, the highest in McDavid's career via Natural Stat Trick. His most common linemates were Zach Hyman (919 minutes) and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (532 minutes). When McDavid plays with elite talent, the top line goes supernova, giving Edmonton a five-on-five line with outscoring results normally expected from a power play.
Draisaitl and McDavid have delivered magic for years together. Babcock is looking for an extreme edge with the idea of placing McDavid and Draisaitl together. However, the two men were not as productive together in 2025-26.
| Year | Mins | Goals-60 | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
469 |
4.09 |
57 |
|
2023-24 |
466 |
4.89 |
64 |
|
2024-25 |
406 |
4.57 |
63 |
|
2025-26 |
318 |
3.4 |
53 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
If the chemistry is there, and one would be wise to bet on it, Babcock might plan to run Nugent-Hopkins as the second-line centre. That said, the numbers last season were poor with Nugent-Hopkins in that role. His line had a 37 percent goal share and scored 1.6 goals per 60 when playing away from McDavid and Draisaitl.
Many fans think Babcock will fade the idea of McDavid-Draisaitl together, but every coach since Todd McLellan has found it impossible to resist. Though it's possible, though unlikely, that Nugent-Hopkins will enjoy a renaissance on the second line, the worry is Babcock might take an extended period to conclude the team is without an above-average second-line centre if the two big talents play together. That could cost some early-season games. If that scenario becomes reality, Babcock would probably agitate for an upgrade, engaging general manager Stan Bowman to acquire a veteran second-line centre.
Should fans worry about early-season losses because of Babcock's lack of experience in this area? The team would indeed be vulnerable if McDavid-Draisaitl play too much on the same line and Nugent-Hopkins continues to erode as a centre facing top-level opposition. A slow start is more likely if Babcock pursues the plan vigorously without regard to what happens when McDavid-Draisaitl are at rest five-on-five.
Evaluating Josh Brown
Bob Stauffer suggested on “Oilers Now†earlier this summer that rugged defenceman Josh Brown will get the chance to make the big club, despite real concerns about his ability in coverage. In his last two full NHL seasons (2022-23 and 2023-24, with the Arizona Coyotes), Brown posted a 45 percent goal share (42 percent expected) in 1,493 minutes. When he was off the ice, the rest of the Coyotes defencemen performed at a higher level with a 48 percent real and expected goal share, via Natural Stat Trick.
The numbers suggest adding Brown and his rugged edge will make the team less efficient defensively. It's an idea brought to life via a previous professional relationship and is unlikely to succeed.
Should fans be worried? In this case, likely not. Brown's making the team as one of the Oilers' top seven defencemen would mean losing a productive NHL player on waivers. A good guess has the defensive group for opening night as Mattias Ekholm, Evan Bouchard, Jake Walman, Connor Murphy, Ryan Shea, Ty Emberson and Shakir Mukhamadullin.
Brown will get a chance to compete, but an organization already poised to risk Spencer Stastney and Alec Regula to waivers is extremely unlikely to further cut into an established NHL defensive crew.
Weighing inexperience
Fans are curious about Ike Howard's role on the big team this season. Many wonder whether the club can afford to have two smaller wingers with little experience, Howard and Matt Savoie, playing big minutes every night. Some believe the team would be better off cashing Howard for a veteran forward.
In this case, however, Howard represents a wise investment. Young players make mistakes, and those errors sometimes cost games. However, the alternative is stagnation and watching the roster grow old. Bowman liked Howard enough to trade for him, and Howard is a strong bet to emerge as a 20-goal scorer in the near future. Time for the Oilers to give him a full audition in 2026-27.
Bottom line
Two of these issues are easy calls. Brown's resume doesn't suggest he will be able to make the grade this fall, so stating he'll get a chance to make the team costs nothing. If Brown arrives at camp and impresses, the club will send him out and keep his name in mind for recall. Howard is a smart bet to make the team, but even if he doesn't, the club would be risking a major asset by waiting another year for him to play 50-plus games as an NHL regular. His time is now.
The plot thickens with McDavid-Draisaitl on the top line and Nugent-Hopkins as second-line centre. Babcock hasn't coached in a decade, and his view of Nugent-Hopkins might not include dozens of recent viewings while the veteran is playing centre. Babcock and his staff could run full steam ahead with Nugent-Hopkins playing tough opponents on an Edmonton second line.
If the coach gets stubborn, and coaches do get stubborn, the team could get outscored badly on the second line. A 64 percent goal share on the top line is exceptional, but a team can't give it all back when the second unit jumps over the boards. In this small sliver of roster minutiae, Oilers fans might know something Babcock has yet to discover for himself, which could affect the early portion of the season negatively.
