How Arsenal plan to build a Premier League dynasty by chasing stars like Vinicius Junior and Bruno Guimaraes

When Arsenal finally crested the Premier League summit back in May, they could feel that they had built their squad in an ideal fashion. Over half a decade of significant expense, Mikel Arteta and his employers had built a talented squad of players of a similar age, one which grew together into a force few across Europe could compete with.

If recent Premier League precedent was anything to go by, the next step was straightforward. You win the league, you get younger. That was Liverpool’s approach 12 months ago, where, at 25, Alexander Isak was the oldest of a cadre of additions in their early 20s earmarked to succeed Trent Alexander-Arnold, Luis Diaz and eventually Mohamed Salah. More successful reboots along a similar theme have been carried out by Manchester City too. It makes sense. The best time to move out your late prime stars is when they have some championship gleam on them. 

Arsenal found themselves in a position where such an approach might have made sense. After several years where Arteta was rolling out some of the youngest XIs in the division, their title-winning season saw him field teams with an average age of 26, right around the midpoint. Prime age performers delivered prime performances. 

Suddenly a team that would themselves eventually admit that they just needed to get over the hump of that first title could survey a Premier League landscape primed for them to rule over for several years yet. Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea are all in states of transition on the field and in the dugout. No other team has suggested over an extended spell that their ceiling is title winner.

This looked like a moment for Arsenal to extend their window of serial contention, to consider how a dynasty might extend beyond the late 20s of Gabriel Magalhaes, Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice. In parts of their squad that is exactly what they have done. The scorer of the decisive goal in the Premier League title race, Leandro Trossard, has departed to Besiktas. In place of the 31-year-old comes a forward whose final season in the Belgian Pro League was like a turbocharged version of Trossard’s age 23 campaign in the same division. Christos Tzolis, 24, might not be a big name, but he has already made a big impact on his new colleagues, dubbed “Leonidas” by fitness coaches after setting the high watermark in sprint tests among the first group of players to join up for preseason.

Shaving seven years off a position looks like being the exception rather than the rule for Arsenal, whose attempts to deepen their defense to compensate for William Saliba’s injury began with interest in free agent John Stones (32) and Ezri Konsa (29 in October), who they value at less than Aston Villa’s $80.6 million (£60 million) asking price. 

Chasing Bruno

A pedant might argue that in midfield Arsenal are bringing their age profile down with Christian Norgaard (32) set to join Everton, but Bruno Guimaraes is not taking the lockerroom role of the Dane. Instead, the 29-year-old would be vying with Martin Zubimendi and Myles Lewis-Skelly for a place alongside Rice in Arteta’s engine room. An opening bid understood to be worth under $94 million (£70 million) for Guimaraes was rejected by Newcastle on Monday, but talks between the two parties have continued since, with a club-to-club agreement now understood to be close.

Their patient approach to securing their primary midfield target appears to have paid dividends. When interest was first mooted through third parties earlier in the summer, Newcastle were emphatic that they did not want to lose their club captain in the same summer as Sandro Tonali and Anthony Gordon. Several weeks later, and direct talks between the two clubs have just begun. It would appear they have done so only since a sense of futility has settled over St. James’ Park, where the manager is gone, several targets have already been identified to succeed Guimaraes and fans are demanding a resolution to the saga lest it run to the last hours of the window as the sale of Isak did.

Dreaming of Vini

Then there is Vinicius Junior. That he has 12 months of age on his compatriot Gabriel Martinelli seems irrelevant. At any age, if you find yourself in a position to potentially sign the Real Madrid winger, you push your chips into the table and see what the dealer has for you. Arsenal have long viewed the left wing position as a spot in the attack on which to upgrade, and there are several suitors out there for Martinelli. Roma and Juventus are understood to be among a number of Serie A clubs who hold an interest in the 25-year-old, while Fenerbahce are also monitoring events, according to CBS Sports sources. Martinelli, however, will not rush what would be a hugely significant move for a player who has 12 months left on a contract that Arsenal have the option to extend by a year.

The starting spot that he vied with Trossard for would almost certainly be gone, however, if Vinicius did arrive. Arsenal believe they have a strong chance of securing the services of the Brazilian, who is into the final 12 months of his time at Real Madrid, who have intimated that the offer on the table for an extension is the best they can offer. The Gunners would be willing to bend their wage structure and are prepared to do a deal that allows Vinicius to better exploit his image rights than at the Santiago Bernabeu. 

Ultimately, however, their pitch would only be partially to do with finances. Arsenal can also offer a fresh league and fresh challenge for a player who has won every club prize at Real Madrid, but who has yet to be garlanded with individual accolades and who spent much of last season playing a supporting role behind Kylian Mbappe. If Vinicius wants to win the Ballon d’Or next year then there might be nothing more compelling for his candidacy than leading Arsenal to their first Champions League title while retaining the Premier League.

Going all-in for the Champions League

That speaks to why Arsenal are making moves that feel more in keeping with a team that is still trying to break a trophy duck. You sign Guimaraes, who turns 29 in November, and Vinicius, who has over 500 games to his name with club and country, for the here and now. For Arsenal and Arteta that is filling the Champions League-shaped hole in the trophy cabinet. It is becoming the first team since Herbert Chapman’s in 1935 to retain a league title.

Since the first players trickled back to preseason, sources close to Arsenal have been struck by the intensity with which Arteta’s squad have approached their title defense. There has been no slacking off, a renewed determination that some believe has been informed by the anguish of their defeat to Paris Saint-Germain in Budapest. Their manager is obsessive in his pursuit of greater heights. That attitude has had a long time to become inculcated into his players.

The question then is whether Guimaraes and Vinicius take them higher. The instinctive answer is of course. One ranks among the Premier League’s outstanding midfielders, the latter among the game’s best players. In Guimaraes’ case he also addresses an obvious issue in what was already a talented Arsenal midfield. He passes the ball very well indeed.

If you were picking flaws in Arsenal’s very talented midfield last season, it might have been that they wanted for deep passing. Rice has come on leaps and bounds in that regard but looks at his exceptional best when carrying. Lewis-Skelly is similar, preternaturally adept at shielding the ball, brushing off a challenge and driving upfield. Zubimendi is as good as you get at manipulating opponents with his off-ball movement. When Arsenal were on it, however, they too frequently needed Martin Odegaard dropping deep to get them moving upfield.

Guimaraes could address many of those issues. In recent years Eddie Howe tended to have his captain somewhat advanced of Sandro Tonali, but there is no reason why, if he were to sign for Arsenal, Guimaraes could not function as a tempo setter from deep just as effectively as he could form a double pivot with Rice or play ahead of him. Guimaraes is so multi-faceted in his skills that he could slot in seamlessly alongside any other combination of Arsenal midfielders. Play an Eberechi Eze ahead of him and he could be an ammunition provider, combine him with Rice and Odegaard and there might be the opportunity to set a possession chokehold in the final third. 

Really, the only critique you can offer of this player at Arsenal is that they should have got him either when he joined Lyon in 2020 or Newcastle two years later, both occasions when he was on their radar but the Gunners demurred in making a move.

Instinctively, Vinicius is even more of a slam dunk and that would probably prove to be the case if he could be convinced to abandon the Bernabeu for the Emirates. In his final year as the guy on Real Madrid he scored 21 goals and delivered nine assists at an average of 0.9 goal contributions and 0.81 expected goals and expected assists combined per 90 minutes, all in a season where he was hampered by injuries. In the biggest games he showed up, two crucial goals in the first leg of the Champions League semifinal, the decisive second in the final.

There are a handful of forwards in the world on his level, maybe only two who have been above it in recent years. If you have a chance to get him you do what Arsenal are doing: letting targets such as Bradley Barcola fall somewhat by the wayside, for now at least, and take an aggressive swing at Vinicius. If you get him, you figure everything else out later.

Of course though, there are things to figure out, and Vinicius knows better than anyone that let’s get our talismanic forward and go from there is not always the shrewdest strategy. Two years into his partnership with Mbappe, Madrid have not found a way to get the best out of both at the same time. At Arsenal there is a more obvious role to fill in a side that have long needed an elite presence on the left flank.

So long, in fact, that they have become one of the most lopsided elite sides out there. The greatest strength of Arteta’s attack is the interplay of Bukayo Saka, Martin Odegaard and a fullback in the right channel just outside the box. In their title-winning season, well over 44% of their attacking-third touches came in the right third of the field, and that was a campaign when their two star attackers were frequently hurt. When they are both fit, you ended up with an Arsenal side that rained down 91 goals on the 2023-24 Premier League. Instinctively switching this team away from a unipolar model to one that can beat their opposition down both flanks makes a lot of sense, but it will be a coaching challenge for Arteta to create a possession model that can give Vinicius Junior over three and a half shots and 10-plus penalty box touches per 90. A luxury problem no doubt but something that needs solving.

Then there is the other aspect of Arsenal’s identity that may not play well with Vinicius, what happens when the ball is lost. The Gunners are such an outstanding defensive unit that they very nearly shut PSG out entirely in their last competitive match, but that is a team effort. The caricature of Vinicius without the ball is a player who ambulates around until one of the other 10 get it back, when he bursts into life and punishes overcommitted fullbacks. Firstly, there might well be value in Arsenal having a forward who does not track back, who dares his opponent to push upfield when one good clearance could result in a goal in a flash.

Significantly, though, Vinicius might not be as diffident without the ball as one would first assume. No one is going to confuse him with Martinelli, but he is also not irredeemable out of possession. According to data provided by Gradient Sports for CBS, in La Liga last season Vinicius averaged 37.4 pressures per 90 minutes. That places him 108th among 128 eligible forwards and wingers, but then most of the rest of them do not play for a team as possession dominant as Real Madrid. Compare Vinicius to his counterparts on his club and at Barcelona and he does not stand out for good or bad. Among those who rank below the Brazilian in terms of pressures per 90 are Lamine Yamal, Raphinha, Federico Valverde and, by a margin of 43%, Mbappe.

Gradient’s analysis of Vinicius’ work in duels, grading his ability by drawing together a string of different off-ball metrics, is similarly positive. He looks just about fine, as he did in a Brazil shirt at the World Cup. There he averaged 34.8 pressures per 90 but in a tournament where pressing was less prevalent; Carlo Ancelotti got from his No.7 about the volume of off-ball work that might be reasonably expected of a superstar. 

And a superstar to pair with Saka is the one thing Arsenal have been missing even as they have achieved success beyond any realistic expectation they might have had when Arteta was appointed. In a superstar-light market, there simply is not the available forward who fills the position of need while offering all of the characteristics that are most prized in this team. If not Vinicius, then who?

Which brings us back to the approach that so many other title winners take, of building their future team immediately after their glorious present. In the current market it is not immediately obvious who that future Vinicius might be, with the obvious exception of Yan Diomande, whose impending arrival at Real Madrid might help Arsenal to leverage their target out. Keep digging down the list of the best young forwards in Europe and it may not be long before you alight on Max Dowman, who along with Lewis-Skelly and Cristhian Mosquera could form the core of a strong side in the distant future.

For now, Arsenal’s focus is more immediate. They are still operating in win-now mode. That could come with costs down the line. The Gunners are projected to post the largest revenues of any Premier League club ever when their accounts for the 2025-26 season are filed, and there has long been headroom for them to operate around squad cost rules both domestic and European. Vinicius would eat into that, but Arsenal are comfortable with their ability to make him a compelling offer. The question is less whether they can afford the Brazilian than what happens when Rice, Saliba and Saka come to negotiate their next contracts. 

Again, questions for another time. This is not a club that appears yet ready to think about that next team, not when the title of Europe’s finest club came so close to their grasp in May. Few could argue that Guimaraes and, if they are successful in their ambitious pursuit, Vinicius will not help them achieve that lofty goal in the here and now.