Germany and Serbia will meet at Allianz Arena on Thursday evening, with both teams looking for their first victory in Nations League Group A2.
Germany has collected one point from its opening two matches, while Serbia travels to Munich after consecutive 2-1 defeats at home to Greece and the Netherlands.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals
Best odds: 3/4
Bookmaker: 1xBet
Germany
Jurgen Klopp is still waiting for his first victory as Germany head coach.
An opening 1-1 draw in the Netherlands was followed by a 1-0 home defeat against Greece. Dimitrios Kourbelis scored the only goal in Augsburg with a deflected effort in the 74th minute.
Germany had opportunities, but the passing and finishing were not consistent enough to break down a well-organized defense. That is an immediate concern before another match in which the home side should have plenty of possession.
There is also an unusual selection issue. Klopp chose two groups of players for this international window, with most of those involved in the first two matches scheduled to return to their clubs before the October fixtures.
Germany should therefore look different against Serbia. The incoming players offer fresh legs and plenty of ability, although a changed lineup may need time to find its rhythm.
Florian Wirtz could be particularly important. His ability to receive the ball between midfield and defense should help Germany create chances without relying entirely on crosses.
The hosts must also protect themselves when an attack breaks down. Serbia has enough passing quality to make a careless midfield turnover costly, especially if Germany pushes both fullbacks forward.
A home victory remains the most likely outcome, but the opening matches give little reason to assume that Germany will immediately produce a large score. A controlled performance with fewer defensive risks would be a useful response to the defeat in Augsburg.
Germany Team News
Wirtz and Jonathan Burkardt joined the camp earlier than originally planned after Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz withdrew through injury.
Brajan Gruda has also withdrawn with an abdominal muscle strain. Lennart Karl was moved into the group for the October matches after swapping places with Karim Adeyemi earlier in the camp.
Noah Atubolu, Finn Dahmen and Jonas Urbig are the goalkeepers named for this part of the schedule.
Waldemar Anton and Malick Thiaw are central defensive options, with Ridle Baku available on the right and David Raum or Maximilian Mittelstadt on the left.
Aleksandar Pavlovic and Tom Bischof could be involved in midfield. Wirtz, Karl and Said El Mala provide attacking options, while Burkardt and Nick Woltemade give Klopp different choices at center forward.
Serbia
Serbia has made a disappointing start, losing both of its opening matches by the same 2-1 score.
The defeat against the Netherlands contained some encouragement. Luka Jovic equalized shortly after coming on at halftime, but a second goal from Mexx Meerdink left the hosts without a point again.
Veljko Paunovic made seven changes to his starting lineup for that match, then introduced Dusan Tadic and Jovic at the break. Their involvement helped Serbia become more dangerous around the Dutch penalty area.
That gives the visitors a possible route into this game. Tadic can find a forward with an early pass, while Jovic has the movement to punish a defender who becomes too focused on the ball.
The difficulty will be creating those moments often enough. Germany should push Serbia back, and the visitors cannot afford to leave their striker isolated for long periods.
Paunovic also needs better concentration at the back. Serbia has conceded twice in each of its first two games, and another soft goal would make an already difficult away match much harder.
Even so, the results suggest a team capable of staying involved. Serbia responded against the Netherlands and remained in contention until the end. With important attackers unavailable, a compact approach and carefully chosen counterattacks look like the most practical plan in Munich.
That should help keep the score manageable, provided the visitors avoid an early defensive collapse.
Serbia Team News
Aleksandar Mitrovic and Nikola Milenkovic were left out of the squad through injury. Dusan Vlahovic is also unavailable after a calf problem.
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic is a fresh doubt after picking up an injury against the Netherlands. Paunovic said the extent of the problem still needed to be assessed.
Strahinja Pavlovic also has a reported injury concern after leaving that match in the second half. His availability matters even more with Milenkovic already absent.
Vanja Milinkovic-Savic started in goal on Sunday. Srdjan Babic and Strahinja Erakovic are defensive options, while Sasa Lukic and Nemanja Gudelj can provide protection in midfield.
Tadic and Jovic should be pushing for starting places after their impact from the bench. Andrija Zivkovic offers another attacking outlet, with Dejan Joveljic available as an alternative up front.
Germany vs Serbia key factors to consider
- Germany has one point from its opening two Nations League matches.
- Germany has scored once across those two games.
- Serbia lost 2-1 to both Greece and the Netherlands.
- All four of those matches finished with fewer than four goals.
- Germany is expected to make extensive changes under Klopp's planned squad rotation.
- Serbia is without Mitrovic, Vlahovic and Milenkovic.
- Sergej Milinkovic-Savic and Strahinja Pavlovic have fresh fitness concerns.
Conclusion
Germany should have enough quality to create chances against a Serbian defense that has already conceded four goals. Wirtz and the incoming attacking players offer the possibility of a better performance in front of goal.
However, the hosts are still developing their combinations, and the planned changes add uncertainty to the attack. Serbia's missing forwards also make a high-scoring response from the visitors harder to expect.
There is still a risk that Germany scores early and forces the game open. Under 3.5 goals allows room for a 2-0 or 2-1 home win, as well as a tighter contest if Serbia defends well.
Under 3.5 goals is the best selection.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals
Best odds: 3/4
Bookmaker: 1xBet
